IQ Option

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 19th, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 19th, 2019.

Here’s what Powell could say at Jackson Hole to soothe the roller coaster markets - (Source)

If the markets get their way, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to clarify whether the Fed is at the beginning of a serious rate cutting cycle — or just intending to cut a few times, as insurance against a possible downturn.
Powell speaks Friday morning to kick off the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, and that event is the main focus of markets in the week ahead. The Fed also releases the minutes of its July meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is expected to detail discussions around its decision to cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade.
In a briefing following that meeting, Powell discussed the quarter point rate cut as a “midcycle adjustment,” implying it was just considering a few cuts. That comment shook markets, and interest rates have plunged, along with global bond yields.
“What the market wants is clearly that he moves away from the ‘midcycle adjustment’ commentary and transition toward an easing cycle,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Markets also will be watching any developments that reveal how trade talks between the U.S. and China are faring. President Donald Trump soothed some nerves in the past week when he delayed some of his latest tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump also said Thursday that discussions are continuing, and that he expects to talk to President Xi Jinping soon, though he gave no details.
Powell speaks at a time when markets have been doubting the Fed’s ability to head off a recession. Since he spoke on July 31, the stock market has been turbulent, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 3%, but the move in interest rates has been massive. The 10-year yield was at 2.07% that day, and touched a low of 1.475% on Thursday before returning to 1.54% by late Friday.
The Treasury’s 30-year bond made a historic move in the past week, when its yield fell to a record low of 1.915%, before rising back above 2% Friday. Also, the most widely watched part of the yield curve inverted, when the 2-year yield made the unusual move of temporarily rising above the 10-year yield. That would be taken as a sign of pending recession if it inverts again and stays that way for some time.
Stocks were lower for the week, but reversed sharper losses by the end of the week. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% Friday at 2,888, but was down 1% for the week. The Dow rose 1.2% to 25,886 Friday, but lost 1.5% for the week.
Dramatic moves in the world’s sovereign yields came as global central banks cut interest rates, and there was talk from a European Central Bank official that the ECB could use a big stimulus program. That puts extra pressure on the Fed, which has emphasized that it could lower rates because of the weak global economy, the impact of trade wars and sluggish inflation. Rates all over the globe moved lower, and the benchmark German 10-year bund set a new low of negative 0.73 Friday morning.
“They don’t want to signal they’re worried about the economy because the economy is doing okay, ” said Pramod Alturi, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. “I think they can do it. It’s going to be a tough communications challenge. The worry is when they try to tow the line, they end up being more hawkish than the market is looking for.”
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is looking for Powell to comment on the yield curve inversion and the market turbulence. “Is he more concerned about the outlook?” she said. “Has he become more concerned since the meeting, given the slowdown in global data, the increase of risks in the trade war and the recent significant moves in the market” she said.
The fed funds futures market is pricing in two to three rate cuts for the balance of the year. Since the Fed meeting, the market has become more concerned about the economy, with weaker global data from Europe and China, as well as a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, announced by President Donald Trump.
“Is Powell going to stick to the midcycle adjustment? It’s only been three weeks, but you throw in the sharp inversion of the yield curve and the extra consumer tariffs ... is he going to let the market whipsaw him? We’ve seen a big inversion and a sharp drop in rates since that meeting,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Strategists said the Fed tries to avoid making policy changes at the Jackson Hole meeting, but it was done during the financial crisis.
“Is it going to be an academic speech? Or is he going to pull a Ben Bernanke and use Jackson Hole as his FOMC venue. It was really [former Fed Chairman] Bernanke who most notably [used the meeting to discuss policy] when he laid out the case for QE twice,” Boockvar said.
Powell could also have to defend the Fed’s independence, and reiterate that he will stay in his position until his term expires, particularly after President Donald Trump criticized Fed policy and called him “clueless” this week.
Besides the Fed, there are some economic reports of interest in the week ahead. Existing home sales are announced Wednesday and PMI manufacturing and services data is released Thursday.
Krosby said she is watching developments with Huawei, since the temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with the black-listed Chinese company end on August 19.
“In terms of headlines this could be a market mover because of Huawei’s importance to Beijing. If there is an extension from the administration it could suggest an improvement in the D.C./Beijing dialogue, no doubt a positive headline,” she said, in an email. “We could find out what happens from a presidential tweet or from the Department of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the issue.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Down Friday/Down Monday Streak Ending: A Quick Recovery Still Needed

Barring a late-day reversal, DJIA’s streak of Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) will end today at two in a row. Recently we examined the record of past DF/DM occurrencesand noted that a quick DJIA recovery to pre-DF/DM levels was usually positive as it typically meant the worst of the decline was likely over. Today we delve deeper into the history of two or more DF/DMs in a row.
Excluding the most recent occurrence, there have been two or more consecutive DF/DM’s 39 times since 2000. Of these 39, only four occurrences included three in a row. Using the last DF/DM of the streak as the starting point, the average decline from a subsequent high (within seven calendar days of Monday’s close) to the low sometime during the next 90 calendar days was 6.05% and all but three occurrences suffered a subsequent decline. Using Monday’s close as the refence point, the average decline was 4.53%. Only six of the 39 occurrences did not close lower than Monday’s close. The average number of calendar days until the low was reached was 45.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the 30 trading days before and the 60 trading days after Monday’s close of the last DF/DM of the streak, the patterns are similar to single DF/DM occurrences. If DJIA did not make a quick recovery to pre-DF/DM levels, then DJIA tended to struggle and drift lower.

Yield Curve Inversion Triggers Risk Aversion

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Unless you have been asleep for most of the day in preparation for an upcoming midnight shift, you have probably already heard, over and over, how the 10-year Treasury bond yield falling below the 2-year Treasury bond yield has a perfect record in recent years of forecasting a recession sometime in the future. The result was declines exceeding 3% by DJIA and NASDAQ. S&P 500 just missed this mark falling 2.9%. Since 1971, when NASDAQ began, this combination of losses or worse has only occurred 66 times prior to today. And of these 66 times, 25 occurred during the financial crisis bear in 2008 and early 2009.
Plotting the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after past occurrences reveals (top chart) initial steep and brisk declines followed by modest average gains over the following 60 trading days (approximately three calendar months). However, market performance did pick up nicely at the 6-month and 12-month later points and the frequency of gains also improved. The market could be in for more choppy trading especially in the often-turbulent months of August, September and October.
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Yield Curve Inversion Raises Economic Questions

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typically, yield curve inversion, when long-term yields fall below short-term yields, is viewed as a signal of oncoming recession, although often with a relatively long lead. In the past five economic expansions, the U.S. economy has peaked an average of 21 months after the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields initially turned negative.
U.S. Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Even though we’re discouraged by the yield curve’s shape right now, we see few signs of danger ahead. Data shows the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and corporate debt spreads have remained contained in this latest bout of volatility. Financial conditions are still historically loose, yet there are few signs of excess in the financial system. U.S. stocks have also been resilient against yield curve inversions in the past: Historically, the S&P 500 Index has rallied an average of 22% from the first inversion to the eventual economic peak.
“We’re not convinced that this yield curve inversion is a sign of imminent recession,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market is at full employment, healthy wage growth is fueling strong consumer activity, and corporate profits are at record levels.”
Global Perspective
Of course, recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies of market sentiment, and we take that risk seriously. However, it’s a curious time for global fixed income right now, and Treasury yields have been weighed down by intense global buying pressure amid ultra-low sovereign debt yields elsewhere. Because of this, we think the yield curve’s shape has been driven more by technical factors than domestic economic weakness.
Monetary Policy Remains Too Tight
This yield curve inversion sends an important signal to Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. U.S. monetary policy is clearly still too tight, even after last month’s 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, given trade uncertainty and signs of slowing global growth. The Fed has promised flexibility, and we expect policymakers to enact one or two more cuts by the end of the year. Without an easier Fed, the U.S. dollar may stay elevated and global buying pressure will continue in Treasuries.
What’s Next?
We will continue to monitor the yield curve and incoming economic data. For now, we think the current U.S. economic expansion, now in its 11th year, has more room to run.

A Closer Look at Technical Support

We continue to believe there is technical support for the S&P 500 Index as discussed in our August 9 blog, and we’re already seeing some signs of the pessimism that is necessary for forming a bottom. The negative sentiment intensified August 14 following the inversion of the yield curve (discussed in our August 14 blog), so today we want to take a closer look at some key levels the LPL Research team is watching.
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First is resistance, or levels that an index or stock may struggle to rise above. Despite Tuesday’s 1.5% gain, the S&P 500 ran right into its 50-day moving average near 2,940. This level also marked the 2018 highs for the market, adding to its significance.
As for support, or levels at which we think buyers are likely to step into the market, there are three key levels we are watching: 2,822. The intraday low from August 5 is only about 1% below Wednesday’s close, but it may be viewed by short-term traders as a tactical way to gauge whether we have hit the bottom in this current pullback. 200-day moving average. Currently at 2,796, the 200-day moving average is a closely watched trend indicator that is commonly viewed as either support or resistance, depending on where the index sits in relation to it. 2,740. Perhaps the strongest level of support for the S&P 500 is 2,740. As seen in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, Key Levels for the S&P 500 Index, this benchmark has actually tested 2,740 two times so far this year, but it failed to close below that level either time. 2,740 also happens to be 9.5% below the July highs, right in line with a standard 10% correction. “We believe a retest of the December lows remains unlikely,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We think any decline beyond 10% from recent highs would be excessive, and we would recommend that suitable investors rebalance and add to positions accordingly if the S&P 500 falls that far.”

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 16th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 08.18.19

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.19.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.19.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.20.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.20.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.21.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.21.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.22.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.22.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.23.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.23.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Baidu, Inc. $96.70

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $3.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.70% with revenue decreasing by 3.82%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.2% below its 200 day moving average of $151.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 59,775 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $203.65

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.07 per share on revenue of $31.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.66% with revenue increasing by 1.80%. Short interest has increased by 5.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% above its 200 day moving average of $190.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 15,615 contracts of the $207.50 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Salesforce $143.89

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $3.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.46 to $0.47 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 32.86% with revenue increasing by 20.39%. Short interest has increased by 179.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% below its 200 day moving average of $149.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 21,894 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $84.21

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.61 per share on revenue of $18.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.52 to $1.72 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 3.12%. Short interest has decreased by 12.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% above its 200 day moving average of $77.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 23,882 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. $179.22

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.11% with revenue increasing by 6.53%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $158.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,514 contracts of the $175.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

iQIYI, Inc. $17.08

iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.59 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.11% with revenue increasing by 13.67%. Short interest has increased by 22.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% below its 200 day moving average of $20.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,500 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Weibo Corporation $37.08

Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $429.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $427.00 million to $437.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.42% with revenue increasing by 0.65%. Short interest has increased by 52.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.5% below its 200 day moving average of $55.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,546 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kohl's Corporation $45.51

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.20% with revenue decreasing by 1.75%. Short interest has decreased by 31.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.9% below its 200 day moving average of $62.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,014 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $93.92

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $21.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.93% with revenue increasing by 0.54%. Short interest has increased by 24.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% below its 200 day moving average of $100.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,368 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Splunk Inc. $124.79

Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.12 per share on revenue of $486.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $485.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.43% with revenue increasing by 25.34%. Short interest has increased by 34.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.9% above its 200 day moving average of $121.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 760 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

(Spoilers S8 ADWD) Men and Women, A Song of Hate and Desire 1/3

Hello people of Naath. I'm posting this series here because it was suppressed by the mods at asoiaf for reasons they did not care to divulge. It looks like this sub values quality discussion so it sounds like I might be in the right place. Thanks, and see you in the comments.
"The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who proclaim it." (George Orwell)
Hey crows! If by chance this hasn't been censored on the grounds of some civilization-crumbling policy like "no politics" or "no drama," save the page quickly along with the other parts. Then, I humbly ask you to take a moment to meditate on the wisdom of George Orwell's words, because I can't think of a more important quote to preface the meta topics I'm going to discuss at length.
I don't know a lot about anything except ASOIAF, but I know a little about a lot, and I seem to have a knack for this story. For longer than I care to admit, I did battle with the question of whether or not I'm weaponizing the story with this series of posts. On one hand, my intention isn't to harm anybody, and I don't want this great story to be tainted by any contempt I fail to remove. And on the other hand, I think people can fairly be held responsible for what they say, so that they and others may have the opportunity to learn and grow. I concluded that I am in fact weaponizing the story, and that I'm okay with that, as long as I am taking aim at the ideas rather than the people who hold them.
I like to explain the story from the bottom up. I think it's more immersive that way, less spoiley, and more respectful to the author and his work. But many people seem confused about what ASOIAF is about.
Is ASOIAF a condemnation of war? Is the story condemning religion or celebrating it? Or Catholicism? What is it saying about destiny? Honor? Patriarchal societies? Power? Men and women? What is the storyteller trying to say about people and the world?
I think much of the confusion is by design, and I will talk about some of the dirty tricks the author has been using on us. I also think some of the confusion comes from a lot of bad ideas that have been plaguing the world as of late. And I will talk about those things too.
For this post I'm going to set aside the bottom-up style of analysis that I usually prefer, and start at the highest point that I can manage, then work my way down. My hope is that I can help to course-correct a fandom that I think has wandered off-trail, by peeling back some of the mystique of what makes ASOIAF in particular so damn difficult (and cool).

The Biggest Theme

The biggest, all-encompassing theme of ASOIAF is something along this line:
...drumroll...
There is no such thing as good people and evil people.
or maybe The good and evil world view is flawed.
There are several other major themes, such as "power corrupts", but they're all lesser articulations of the bigger theme. And they all ultimately point to it. If you ever want to know what something in the story is doing to help tell the story, think about how it might be serving this theme and start tracing it back to it.
I gather that a theme is also a premise, though a premise isn't always a theme. It not only describes what the story is about, but it describes the way the story-world works. So one way I can tell when a character is due for long-term tragedy is that he will act out a good and evil world view.
The character will be dismissive of the points-of-view of his enemies and the people who disagree with him, often by categorizing those people as "bad" or some variation of it.
"If you want to sit on your ancestor's throne you must win it. That will mean blood on your hands before the thing is done."
"The blood of my enemies. Not the blood of innocents." (303)
And I can tell when a character is due for long-term triumph because he will champion the points-of-view of his enemies and the people who disagree with him. The ultimate heroes of the story are the characters who challenge their own points-of-view by making themselves vulnerable for the sake of the challenge, and learning from the results.
Men are men and women women, no matter which side of the Wall we were born on. Good men and bad, heroes and villains, men of honor, liars, cravens, brutes … we have plenty, as do you."
She was not wrong. The trick was telling one from the other, parting the sheep from the goats. (ADWD Jon V)
I want to add, if you think there is a bigger theme, or if you can improve upon this one, I would love to read your thoughts about what it is. That is just the best one I can come up with.

Daenerys

To see the fullest demonstration of the theme, we need look no further than the story of Daenerys. Her story is a negative change arc disguised in our sympathy as a positive one. It is ASOIAF's most elaborate and detailed portrayal of the theme, because we get to see every small step in the process of how a kind-hearted, well-meaning person can become a villain in every point-of-view except her own.
Sympathetic villains have something unsympathetic villains don't. They have emotional resonance and believability. Think of Walter White, Tony Soprano, Harvey Dent and Arthas Menethil.
Four aspects make the arc and conflict in the character's mind. (Weiland: Creating Character Arcs)
Here are what I think are the four aspects of Dany's conflict. Again, these are just the best I can come up with, and I'd enjoy reading what you think are the four aspects of Dany's conflict.
"The change in the character is the story. If he is cognizant of what he needs, the story is over." (Truby: Anatomy of Story)
"The internal struggle within a character's mind and morals are where the true wonder of complex character writing is found." (GRRM)

Game of Thrones

Season 8 was a train wreck, all agree. But I don't think it was because of neglect of Daenerys. Dany's arc is the only thing the writers seemed to care about, and therein lies the problem.
I think the audience's role in a story is to identify the themes and apply them to the story. That's how we can grapple with the moral dilemmas the story poses. The reason is that, without having found the themes, we can't actually know what the dilemmas are. Where is the dilemma in something like ending slavery? It isn't self-evident. So in order to find the themes, we reverse engineer the story by looking for patterns in hypothesized dilemmas. We ask, 'supposing that burning slave masters isn't the right way to end slavery, how could the character have done it better? How is it effecting the character? How are other characters handling similar situations and how do they compare?'
"Instead of abolishing slavery over night, we will give you seven years to end the practice." (Tyrion 604)
I often hear it said that the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. I don't think the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. The audience at large failed to identify the theme and/or to apply it to Daenerys. The theme and Dany's growth were more than prevalent in the show.
I often hear it said that the path to killing a million people doesn't go from 1 to 1 million. Well, Dany's path didn't go from 1 to 1 million. It went from 1 to 2 to thousands to 163 to thousands to 2 to 1 million to 1. Or something like that. But the more important point is that the path to killing a million people does go from 1 to 1 million. That seems to be a psychological truth. Because if I can justify killing one person, then I can justify killing a million. All I do is apply the same justification a million times.
We know that sometimes killing is justified, so our attention shouldn't be directed at counting kills. It should be directed at tracking the incentives, motivations and psychology behind the justifications.
I often hear it said that the show rushed Dany's decline. I think the show certainly rushed Season 8 as a whole. The show certainly contrived the circumstances of just about everything. And I think several of the show's decisions contradict the story's theme, which poisons the interpretive toolkit that the audience might have used to decipher the theme. But I don't think the show rushed Dany's decline.
"It's what I told myself when I watched them beg for mercy... I'm not the one doing it. When the pitch of their screams rose higher... I'm not the one doing it. When their hair caught fire and the smell of their burning flesh filled the throne room... I'm not the one doing it." (Varys 705)
In 705 Varys describes to Tyrion the psychological process by which his conscience deteriorated in increments, in service to The Mad King. Dany's decline was a psychological process much like the one Varys is describing. Here's the story of Dany's conscience.

The Conscience

First, what does a conscience do? It's the thing we ask really difficult questions to. When the line between right and wrong is too blurry to navigate with logic and reason, or when the facts are unclear, we rely on the conscience to tell us what is wrong. It signals what is wrong by sending negative emotion in varying intensity. The option that triggers the least negative emotion is the option the conscience thinks is the least wrong.
Why do we need a conscience? Because morality is an ever-changing landscape. It changes depending on the situation, the circumstances, location, time of day, the nature of the relationship and just about every complicating variable there is. The changes are too fast for reason to keep up.
Second, you have to think of the conscience like a muscle.
Illyrio's servants entered, bowed, and set about their business. They were slaves, a gift from one of the magister's many Dothraki friends. There was no slavery in the free city of Pentos. Nonetheless, they were slaves. (AGOT Daenerys I)
The undeveloped muscle is quite good. It can identify the commonalities between servanthood and slavehood. But it's weak and inexperienced. Innocent but naive. And so it needs to learn.
It will learn everything I practice. That means I can teach it by accumulating life experiences. But it also means that I have to be careful about what I pretend to be. Because my conscience will learn that too.
Here's an abbreviated and chronological list of Dany's reasoning placed beside some of the events in which she used that reasoning.
Each step builds upon the one before it. The second justification doesn't work without the first, nor the third without the second, nor the fourth without the third. But it isn't apparent how they build upon each other until we look at the psychology behind it. So let's do it.
In each reasoning there is an acknowledgement from the person that what is happening is wrong, until the final reasoning at which point she cannot tell anymore that it's wrong.
The conscience is a mechanism that guides her through difficult dilemmas. Dany broke the mechanism by misusing it. By the end of the story, her conscience isn't a reliable guide anymore. And that's why she feels justified in her ruthlessness.
Dany was on a negative change arc from the beginning and all the way through the series. The reason the audience didn't identify the lie is because the audience largely believes the lie themselves.
"The three great untruths - these are three of the worst ideas in the world - are: What doesn't kill you makes you weaker. Therefore you should avoid unpleasantness, avoid speakers, authors and books that are upsetting. Number two is always trust your feelings. Don't let anyone question your feelings. They're invalidating you. And number three: Life is a battle between good people and evil people. Never forget that and devote yourself to fighting the evil people. Of course, they think that about you, but nevermind." (Haidt: The Coddling of the American Mind)
We believe that the world is a landscape of good people and evil people. Dany is clearly one of the good ones. The people she kills are the bad ones.
Nobody wakes up in the morning and says 'What evil can I do today?' (GRRM)
I think an awful lot of fantasy and even some great fantasy falls into the mistake of assuming that the good man will be a good king. That all that is necessary is to be like a decent human being and then when you're king of course everything will go swimmingly. (GRRM)
It's not enough to be a good man to be an effective ruler. And it never has been, you know? (GRRM)
"It doesn't matter if you're the hero. I think everybody who died in any war thought they were the hero right until the moment that the bullet blew off the top of their skull." (GRRM)
Considering that the audience believes the same lie that Dany believes, I think the criticisms that Dany is acting out-of-character are a testament to one or both of these things:
I think it's some of both, but more the latter. I'll show you why after the next section.

The Point-of-View Challenge

ASOIAF is written from a peculiar perspective. I used to call it first-person, but that isn't quite right. It's something like third-person narration of first-person.
The narrator is describing the thoughts and perceptions of one POV character at a time and strictly limiting his narration to that which the POV character is thinking, feeling and perceiving. Sometimes less, but never more.
It accomplishes something very interesting as it relates to the big theme.
To the east, Gods Eye was a sheet of sun-hammered blue that filled half the world. (ACOK Arya V)
Third-person narration gives a sense that the thing we're reading is objectively true. But sometimes it isn't. Everything we read is limited by the POV character's biases, misunderstandings and prejudices. In other words, every single thing in the story is suspect unreliable narration. When I rewrite the same line with reliable narration, I get a better picture of what's really going on.
I didn't think to ask whether or not this eleven-year-old POV is confused about her cardinal directions, or perhaps disoriented in her travels, because it's written in what sounds like third-person, which implies that it is an omniscient account. Here's the original line again, but written in first-person.
It sounds like a limited account rather than an omniscient one. I'm much more likely to apply a critical eye to this line than I am to the original. And that's exactly why the author didn't write it this way.
But Martin plays fair. Because every occurrence of unreliable narration is accompanied (somewhere) by the reliable narration. Things that the character doesn't see, hear or know may be omitted, but they are replaced with breadcrumbs that assist the reader in gaining an alternate perspective and, ultimately, the reliable narration.
"We can't go round west of the lake, like I thought." (Yoren, ACOK Arya IV)
How does that tie in with the big theme? Look at what we did. In order to gain a better understanding of the story, we took a character who we like, who we think is right and good, and we challenged our own belief. Maybe Arya isn't right. Maybe the POV character is wrong. And then we investigated that possibility with genuine intent. We voluntarily made ourselves vulnerable to the possibility that we are wrong and a character we like is wrong and, in this case, even a little incompetent.
The result is that this fantasy story is a mystery story disguised as fantasy. The result is that the most useful question in ASOIAF is "What if the POV character is wrong?" Which is essentially to ask "What if I'm wrong that the POV character is right or wrong?" We have challenged our own belief.
To ask that question of every word and every sentence in the story, and then to take that question seriously as if I wanted to actually answer it and as if the answer were somewhere in the story, is to solve the story's themes and mysteries. ASOIAF surrenders its secrets wherever we touch it with that most potent question.
When we ask ourselves the question "What if the POV character is wrong?" we are acting out the story's biggest theme. We're acting out a genuine interest that perhaps a person we think is good and right or bad and wrong... is not. And we're doing it no matter how much we doubt the possibility, no matter how much we don't want to find evidence contrary to our belief.
ASOIAF does this all the time. It creates in the reader and in the audience the same dilemma that the characters are struggling with. It's phenomenal.

Reflection in the Mirror

I promised to show you why I think our societies are sick with the good and evil world view. But it seemed important to show you the point-of-view challenge, to give you a sense of just how deep the theme runs through the story. The criticism of the good and evil world view is woven into A Song of Ice and Fire's DNA.
Shakespeare said that art is a mirror held up to nature. And that’s what it is. The nature is your nature, and all of these wonderful poetic images of mythology are referring to something in you. When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image. (Joseph Campbell)
The moral of the story is that there are no good or bad people. There are only people, each of them capable of both good and bad deeds. Since the moral landscape is ever-changing, the true moral failing is an inability to challenge my own beliefs or to adapt my understanding of what is good and bad to the context in which the deeds in question were performed. It's in the certainty that my idea of good and bad is an unchanging, objective fact about the world.
Dany: "Because I know what is good."
Jon: "What about everyone else? All the other people who think they know what's good?"
Dany: "They don't get to choose." (806)
It wasn't until Season 7 that I became certain of Dany's ending. But that left me with a year to think and talk about it. I thought it was downright brilliant storytelling, because my own sympathy had been used against me to teach me a valuable lesson.
When I saw the fan reaction to Season 8, all I could see were millions of modern day Daeneryses. People at large refused to admit their mistakes, to see their reflection in the mirror that the story held up to them, and instead chose to externalize the costs onto other people.
Like Dany, the audience refused to genuinely challenge their own beliefs.
"Sometimes it is better to answer injustice with mercy."
"I will answer injustice with justice." (404)
"They are slave traders who receive people stolen from their homes, process them and sell them on for profit so that they can extend their utterly moribund civilisation and live a life of complacent luxury. They are absolutely the bad guys." (AFOIAF, Wall Flower)
Like Dany, the audience protected their comfortable delusions with manipulation.
"They're not your children. I know they call you the Mother of Dragons and I know you love them but you didn't grow them in your womb. They didn't suckle at your breast. They are dragons, Khaleesi. And if we stay in Qarth we'll die."
"You should sail to Astapor. I'm sure you'll be safe there." (208)
Like Dany, the audience demonized the people who disagree with them and doubled-down on their mistakes.
Hey man as a fellow "Dany hater" everything you said there is true. They always do that they mock and deride ideas they don't like even when stated as opinions theyre called wrong and stupid. I thought itd get better after season 8 happened but they doubled down especially in book talk they all jump on anyone critical of danys actions. Mad respect hope they don't ban you (anonymous, Discord)
Like Dany, the audience responded to genuine challenges to their beliefs with dismissiveness and cruelty.
Burning to death is quite quick, no? (NosaAlex94)
Like Dany, the audience responded to the consequences of their dismissiveness with furious outrage.
THEY HAVE NOT SET UP THIS "MADNESS" (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. (@emilia_clarkes)
With grief and isolation.
"I don't need trust any longer. I don't want it and I don't have room for it." (207)
Counselors on Call to Give ‘Game of Thrones’ Fans Grief Therapy (NYPost)
And like Dany, the audience externalizes the cost of their moral failing onto other people...
"You will not hear me scream!"
"I will." (110)
People that are undirectly defending the masters by saying Daenerys did evil by slaughtering them, or not trying hard enough to befriend them, must have slave trader ancestors.? That can be the only explanation. (AFOIAF, Targaryen Peas)
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss have proven themselves to be woefully incompetent writers (change org)
...using the lie to justify it.
"And no amount of contextualization is going to make me equate the slave owner with the liberator. One is good, one is evil." (AFOIAF, Hodor's Dragon)
"Daenerys has always directed her anger and hatred towards those that deserved it." (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
Yes, Daenerys crucified the Wise Masters of Yunkai. Because they were slave owners who murdered and strung up (163) innocent children to prove a point. (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
Translation: Slave owners are evil people.
Theme: There is no such thing as good or evil people.
There are plenty of things to criticize in the show and the writing. But much of what happened after Season 8 was this. We were too caught up in our own vicarious self-righteousness to spot a tyrant-in-the-making. And that's exactly what the story is meant to accomplish...
"I want you not just to read my work but to live my work." (GRRM)
...and, I daresay, remedy.
When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image.
I think the reason Season 8 is a train wreck is because the writers neglected everything except Dany's arc. And that risk of neglect is the same reason GRRM originally turned down offers to adapt ASOIAF into a movie 20 years ago.
"How are they gonna fit this giant thing in a feature film? 'Well, we'll make it all about Jon Snow and drop all these other characters.' Or, 'We'll make it all about Dany and we'll drop all these other characters.' They had various schemes of how they would do it." (GRRM)
I think Daenerys, more than any other character, embodies of the main theme of the story. If I thought the author who wrote Aerys and Brandon, Ramsay and Jeyne, Blood and Cheese is going to pull his punches when it comes time to finish his magnum opus, I'm in for a shock come The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring.

Identity

ASOIAF is a story about identity. Nearly every major character if not every major character is struggling with what can most succinctly be called "their past." But I pack a lot of things into "their past" that wouldn't normally be considered part of a person's past, so let me take some of those things out and explain why they're in there.
Those are a few identity challenges that characters need to overcome.
Why is birth part of my past? Because it happened in the past.
Why is heritage part of my past? Because I inherited my heritage at birth, which happened in the past.
I can tell when a character is due for tragedy by looking at whether or not a given character is rejecting "their past" or failing to integrate their past into their identity in a sustainable way.
“He is part of you, Robb. To fear him is to fear you.”
”I am not a wolf, no matter what they call me.” Robb sounded cross. (ASOS Catelyn II)
The taste of hot blood filled Jon's mouth, and he knew that Ghost had killed that night. No, he thought. I am a man, not a wolf. (ADWD Jon III)
“Rather too fierce, for an amiable fellow like me,” said Petyr. “I much prefer my mockingbird.” (ASOS Sansa VI)
Notice that some of the identity challenges are earned, such as the character's past mistakes, while others are not earned, such as Tyrion's dwarfism.
Tyrion was born a dwarf, and that's unfair to Tyrion. But it's also an immutable fact. Notice that all things in "their past" are immutable, regardless of whether or not it was earned. The nature of the past is that it cannot be changed.
Because Tyrion's dwarfism is immutable, the appropriate way for Tyrion to deal with it is to take responsibility of it and integrate his dwarfism into his identity going forward, regardless how unfair a condition it is to inherit.
"Let me give you some counsel, bastard," Lannister said. "Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you." (AGOT Jon I)
Because Arya, Brienne and Cersei's gender is immutable, the appropriate way for them to deal with it is to take responsibility for it and integrate it into their identities going forward, regardless how unfair a gender it is to inherit.
You are skinny as the shaft of a spear, do you know. That is good too, the target is smaller. (AGOT Arya II)
Sometimes the world needs to change to accommodate me. And sometimes I need to change the world to make room for myself. After all, a person has a responsibility to himself and his own well-being.
But that is only half of the identity theme.
The other half is that, in a mostly-peaceful and mostly-functioning society like Westeros, most of the time I need to do what my family and society require of me. I have a responsibility to my family and institutions. And if I won't pick up my share of the responsibilities, the unavoidable necessities won't be addressed.
“Mother,” he said, “I have the great honor to present you the Lady Jeyne Westerling. Lord Gawen’s elder daughter, and my … ah … my lady wife.” (ASOS Catelyn II)
Then the costs will be offloaded onto some hero more responsible than me. In the absence of a hero, the costs find me in a different way.
He had wrapped his cloak around her shoulders and sworn to protect her, but that was as cruel a jape as the crown the Freys had placed atop the head of Robb Stark's direwolf after they'd sewn it onto his headless corpse. (ASOS Tyrion VII)
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(Spoilers S8 ADWD) Men and Women, A Song of Hate and Desire 1/3

Apologies for the interruption. I know this isn't usual fare in /asoiafcirclejerk. I'm posting this series here because it was suppressed by the mods at /asoiaf for reasons they did not care to divulge. Happy circlejerking.
"The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who proclaim it." (George Orwell)
Hey crows! If by chance this hasn't been censored on the grounds of some civilization-crumbling policy like "no politics" or "no drama," save the page quickly along with the other parts. Then, I humbly ask you to take a moment to meditate on the wisdom of George Orwell's words, because I can't think of a more important quote to preface the meta topics I'm going to discuss at length.
I don't know a lot about anything except ASOIAF, but I know a little about a lot, and I seem to have a knack for this story. For longer than I care to admit, I did battle with the question of whether or not I'm weaponizing the story with this series of posts. On one hand, my intention isn't to harm anybody, and I don't want this great story to be tainted by any contempt I fail to remove. And on the other hand, I think people can fairly be held responsible for what they say, so that they and others may have the opportunity to learn and grow. I concluded that I am in fact weaponizing the story, and that I'm okay with that, as long as I am taking aim at the ideas rather than the people who hold them.
I like to explain the story from the bottom up. I think it's more immersive that way, less spoiley, and more respectful to the author and his work. But many people seem confused about what ASOIAF is about.
Is ASOIAF a condemnation of war? Is the story condemning religion or celebrating it? Or Catholicism? What is it saying about destiny? Honor? Patriarchal societies? Power? Men and women? What is the storyteller trying to say about people and the world?
I think much of the confusion is by design, and I will talk about some of the dirty tricks the author has been using on us. I also think some of the confusion comes from a lot of bad ideas that have been plaguing the world as of late. And I will talk about those things too.
For this post I'm going to set aside the bottom-up style of analysis that I usually prefer, and start at the highest point that I can manage, then work my way down. My hope is that I can help to course-correct a fandom that I think has wandered off-trail, by peeling back some of the mystique of what makes ASOIAF in particular so damn difficult (and cool).

The Biggest Theme

The biggest, all-encompassing theme of ASOIAF is something along this line:
...drumroll...
There is no such thing as good people and evil people.
or maybe The good and evil world view is flawed.
There are several other major themes, such as "power corrupts", but they're all lesser articulations of the bigger theme. And they all ultimately point to it. If you ever want to know what something in the story is doing to help tell the story, think about how it might be serving this theme and start tracing it back to it.
I gather that a theme is also a premise, though a premise isn't always a theme. It not only describes what the story is about, but it describes the way the story-world works. So one way I can tell when a character is due for long-term tragedy is that he will act out a good and evil world view.
The character will be dismissive of the points-of-view of his enemies and the people who disagree with him, often by categorizing those people as "bad" or some variation of it.
"If you want to sit on your ancestor's throne you must win it. That will mean blood on your hands before the thing is done."
"The blood of my enemies. Not the blood of innocents." (303)
And I can tell when a character is due for long-term triumph because he will champion the points-of-view of his enemies and the people who disagree with him. The ultimate heroes of the story are the characters who challenge their own points-of-view by making themselves vulnerable for the sake of the challenge, and learning from the results.
Men are men and women women, no matter which side of the Wall we were born on. Good men and bad, heroes and villains, men of honor, liars, cravens, brutes … we have plenty, as do you."
She was not wrong. The trick was telling one from the other, parting the sheep from the goats. (ADWD Jon V)
I want to add, if you think there is a bigger theme, or if you can improve upon this one, I would love to read your thoughts about what it is. That is just the best one I can come up with.

Daenerys

To see the fullest demonstration of the theme, we need look no further than the story of Daenerys. Her story is a negative change arc disguised in our sympathy as a positive one. It is ASOIAF's most elaborate and detailed portrayal of the theme, because we get to see every small step in the process of how a kind-hearted, well-meaning person can become a villain in every point-of-view except her own.
Sympathetic villains have something unsympathetic villains don't. They have emotional resonance and believability. Think of Walter White, Tony Soprano, Harvey Dent and Arthas Menethil.
Four aspects make the arc and conflict in the character's mind. (Weiland: Creating Character Arcs)
Here are what I think are the four aspects of Dany's conflict. Again, these are just the best I can come up with, and I'd enjoy reading what you think are the four aspects of Dany's conflict.
"The change in the character is the story. If he is cognizant of what he needs, the story is over." (Truby: Anatomy of Story)
"The internal struggle within a character's mind and morals are where the true wonder of complex character writing is found." (GRRM)

Game of Thrones

Season 8 was a train wreck, all agree. But I don't think it was because of neglect of Daenerys. Dany's arc is the only thing the writers seemed to care about, and therein lies the problem.
I think the audience's role in a story is to identify the themes and apply them to the story. That's how we can grapple with the moral dilemmas the story poses. The reason is that, without having found the themes, we can't actually know what the dilemmas are. Where is the dilemma in something like ending slavery? It isn't self-evident. So in order to find the themes, we reverse engineer the story by looking for patterns in hypothesized dilemmas. We ask, 'supposing that burning slave masters isn't the right way to end slavery, how could the character have done it better? How is it effecting the character? How are other characters handling similar situations and how do they compare?'
"Instead of abolishing slavery over night, we will give you seven years to end the practice." (Tyrion 604)
I often hear it said that the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. I don't think the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. The audience at large failed to identify the theme and/or to apply it to Daenerys. The theme and Dany's growth were more than prevalent in the show.
I often hear it said that the path to killing a million people doesn't go from 1 to 1 million. Well, Dany's path didn't go from 1 to 1 million. It went from 1 to 2 to thousands to 163 to thousands to 2 to 1 million to 1. Or something like that. But the more important point is that the path to killing a million people does go from 1 to 1 million. That seems to be a psychological truth. Because if I can justify killing one person, then I can justify killing a million. All I do is apply the same justification a million times.
We know that sometimes killing is justified, so our attention shouldn't be directed at counting kills. It should be directed at tracking the incentives, motivations and psychology behind the justifications.
I often hear it said that the show rushed Dany's decline. I think the show certainly rushed Season 8 as a whole. The show certainly contrived the circumstances of just about everything. And I think several of the show's decisions contradict the story's theme, which poisons the interpretive toolkit that the audience might have used to decipher the theme. But I don't think the show rushed Dany's decline.
"It's what I told myself when I watched them beg for mercy... I'm not the one doing it. When the pitch of their screams rose higher... I'm not the one doing it. When their hair caught fire and the smell of their burning flesh filled the throne room... I'm not the one doing it." (Varys 705)
In 705 Varys describes to Tyrion the psychological process by which his conscience deteriorated in increments, in service to The Mad King. Dany's decline was a psychological process much like the one Varys is describing. Here's the story of Dany's conscience.

The Conscience

First, what does a conscience do? It's the thing we ask really difficult questions to. When the line between right and wrong is too blurry to navigate with logic and reason, or when the facts are unclear, we rely on the conscience to tell us what is wrong. It signals what is wrong by sending negative emotion in varying intensity. The option that triggers the least negative emotion is the option the conscience thinks is the least wrong.
Why do we need a conscience? Because morality is an ever-changing landscape. It changes depending on the situation, the circumstances, location, time of day, the nature of the relationship and just about every complicating variable there is. The changes are too fast for reason to keep up.
Second, you have to think of the conscience like a muscle.
Illyrio's servants entered, bowed, and set about their business. They were slaves, a gift from one of the magister's many Dothraki friends. There was no slavery in the free city of Pentos. Nonetheless, they were slaves. (AGOT Daenerys I)
The undeveloped muscle is quite good. It can identify the commonalities between servanthood and slavehood. But it's weak and inexperienced. Innocent but naive. And so it needs to learn.
It will learn everything I practice. That means I can teach it by accumulating life experiences. But it also means that I have to be careful about what I pretend to be. Because my conscience will learn that too.
Here's an abbreviated and chronological list of Dany's reasoning placed beside some of the events in which she used that reasoning.
Each step builds upon the one before it. The second justification doesn't work without the first, nor the third without the second, nor the fourth without the third. But it isn't apparent how they build upon each other until we look at the psychology behind it. So let's do it.
In each reasoning there is an acknowledgement from the person that what is happening is wrong, until the final reasoning at which point she cannot tell anymore that it's wrong.
The conscience is a mechanism that guides her through difficult dilemmas. Dany broke the mechanism by misusing it. By the end of the story, her conscience isn't a reliable guide anymore. And that's why she feels justified in her ruthlessness.
Dany was on a negative change arc from the beginning and all the way through the series. The reason the audience didn't identify the lie is because the audience largely believes the lie themselves.
"The three great untruths - these are three of the worst ideas in the world - are: What doesn't kill you makes you weaker. Therefore you should avoid unpleasantness, avoid speakers, authors and books that are upsetting. Number two is always trust your feelings. Don't let anyone question your feelings. They're invalidating you. And number three: Life is a battle between good people and evil people. Never forget that and devote yourself to fighting the evil people. Of course, they think that about you, but nevermind." (Haidt: The Coddling of the American Mind)
We believe that the world is a landscape of good people and evil people. Dany is clearly one of the good ones. The people she kills are the bad ones.
Nobody wakes up in the morning and says 'What evil can I do today?' (GRRM)
I think an awful lot of fantasy and even some great fantasy falls into the mistake of assuming that the good man will be a good king. That all that is necessary is to be like a decent human being and then when you're king of course everything will go swimmingly. (GRRM)
It's not enough to be a good man to be an effective ruler. And it never has been, you know? (GRRM)
"It doesn't matter if you're the hero. I think everybody who died in any war thought they were the hero right until the moment that the bullet blew off the top of their skull." (GRRM)
Considering that the audience believes the same lie that Dany believes, I think the criticisms that Dany is acting out-of-character are a testament to one or both of these things:
I think it's some of both, but more the latter. I'll show you why after the next section.

The Point-of-View Challenge

ASOIAF is written from a peculiar perspective. I used to call it first-person, but that isn't quite right. It's something like third-person narration of first-person.
The narrator is describing the thoughts and perceptions of one POV character at a time and strictly limiting his narration to that which the POV character is thinking, feeling and perceiving. Sometimes less, but never more.
It accomplishes something very interesting as it relates to the big theme.
To the east, Gods Eye was a sheet of sun-hammered blue that filled half the world. (ACOK Arya V)
Third-person narration gives a sense that the thing we're reading is objectively true. But sometimes it isn't. Everything we read is limited by the POV character's biases, misunderstandings and prejudices. In other words, every single thing in the story is suspect unreliable narration. When I rewrite the same line with reliable narration, I get a better picture of what's really going on.
I didn't think to ask whether or not this eleven-year-old POV is confused about her cardinal directions, or perhaps disoriented in her travels, because it's written in what sounds like third-person, which implies that it is an omniscient account. Here's the original line again, but written in first-person.
It sounds like a limited account rather than an omniscient one. I'm much more likely to apply a critical eye to this line than I am to the original. And that's exactly why the author didn't write it this way.
But Martin plays fair. Because every occurrence of unreliable narration is accompanied (somewhere) by the reliable narration. Things that the character doesn't see, hear or know may be omitted, but they are replaced with breadcrumbs that assist the reader in gaining an alternate perspective and, ultimately, the reliable narration.
"We can't go round west of the lake, like I thought." (Yoren, ACOK Arya IV)
How does that tie in with the big theme? Look at what we did. In order to gain a better understanding of the story, we took a character who we like, who we think is right and good, and we challenged our own belief. Maybe Arya isn't right. Maybe the POV character is wrong. And then we investigated that possibility with genuine intent. We voluntarily made ourselves vulnerable to the possibility that we are wrong and a character we like is wrong and, in this case, even a little incompetent.
The result is that this fantasy story is a mystery story disguised as fantasy. The result is that the most useful question in ASOIAF is "What if the POV character is wrong?" Which is essentially to ask "What if I'm wrong that the POV character is right or wrong?" We have challenged our own belief.
To ask that question of every word and every sentence in the story, and then to take that question seriously as if I wanted to actually answer it and as if the answer were somewhere in the story, is to solve the story's themes and mysteries. ASOIAF surrenders its secrets wherever we touch it with that most potent question.
When we ask ourselves the question "What if the POV character is wrong?" we are acting out the story's biggest theme. We're acting out a genuine interest that perhaps a person we think is good and right or bad and wrong... is not. And we're doing it no matter how much we doubt the possibility, no matter how much we don't want to find evidence contrary to our belief.
ASOIAF does this all the time. It creates in the reader and in the audience the same dilemma that the characters are struggling with. It's phenomenal.

Reflection in the Mirror

I promised to show you why I think our societies are sick with the good and evil world view. But it seemed important to show you the point-of-view challenge, to give you a sense of just how deep the theme runs through the story. The criticism of the good and evil world view is woven into A Song of Ice and Fire's DNA.
Shakespeare said that art is a mirror held up to nature. And that’s what it is. The nature is your nature, and all of these wonderful poetic images of mythology are referring to something in you. When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image. (Joseph Campbell)
The moral of the story is that there are no good or bad people. There are only people, each of them capable of both good and bad deeds. Since the moral landscape is ever-changing, the true moral failing is an inability to challenge my own beliefs or to adapt my understanding of what is good and bad to the context in which the deeds in question were performed. It's in the certainty that my idea of good and bad is an unchanging, objective fact about the world.
Dany: "Because I know what is good."
Jon: "What about everyone else? All the other people who think they know what's good?"
Dany: "They don't get to choose." (806)
It wasn't until Season 7 that I became certain of Dany's ending. But that left me with a year to think and talk about it. I thought it was downright brilliant storytelling, because my own sympathy had been used against me to teach me a valuable lesson.
When I saw the fan reaction to Season 8, all I could see were millions of modern day Daeneryses. People at large refused to admit their mistakes, to see their reflection in the mirror that the story held up to them, and instead chose to externalize the costs onto other people.
Like Dany, the audience refused to genuinely challenge their own beliefs.
"Sometimes it is better to answer injustice with mercy."
"I will answer injustice with justice." (404)
"They are slave traders who receive people stolen from their homes, process them and sell them on for profit so that they can extend their utterly moribund civilisation and live a life of complacent luxury. They are absolutely the bad guys." (AFOIAF, Wall Flower)
Like Dany, the audience protected their comfortable delusions with manipulation.
"They're not your children. I know they call you the Mother of Dragons and I know you love them but you didn't grow them in your womb. They didn't suckle at your breast. They are dragons, Khaleesi. And if we stay in Qarth we'll die."
"You should sail to Astapor. I'm sure you'll be safe there." (208)
Like Dany, the audience demonized the people who disagree with them and doubled-down on their mistakes.
Hey man as a fellow "Dany hater" everything you said there is true. They always do that they mock and deride ideas they don't like even when stated as opinions theyre called wrong and stupid. I thought itd get better after season 8 happened but they doubled down especially in book talk they all jump on anyone critical of danys actions. Mad respect hope they don't ban you (anonymous, Discord)
Like Dany, the audience responded to genuine challenges to their beliefs with dismissiveness and cruelty.
Burning to death is quite quick, no? (NosaAlex94)
Like Dany, the audience responded to the consequences of their dismissiveness with furious outrage.
THEY HAVE NOT SET UP THIS "MADNESS" (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. (@emilia_clarkes)
With grief and isolation.
"I don't need trust any longer. I don't want it and I don't have room for it." (207)
Counselors on Call to Give ‘Game of Thrones’ Fans Grief Therapy (NYPost)
And like Dany, the audience externalizes the cost of their moral failing onto other people...
"You will not hear me scream!"
"I will." (110)
People that are undirectly defending the masters by saying Daenerys did evil by slaughtering them, or not trying hard enough to befriend them, must have slave trader ancestors.? That can be the only explanation. (AFOIAF, Targaryen Peas)
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss have proven themselves to be woefully incompetent writers (change org)
...using the lie to justify it.
"And no amount of contextualization is going to make me equate the slave owner with the liberator. One is good, one is evil." (AFOIAF, Hodor's Dragon)
"Daenerys has always directed her anger and hatred towards those that deserved it." (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
Yes, Daenerys crucified the Wise Masters of Yunkai. Because they were slave owners who murdered and strung up (163) innocent children to prove a point. (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
Translation: Slave owners are evil people.
Theme: There is no such thing as good or evil people.
There are plenty of things to criticize in the show and the writing. But much of what happened after Season 8 was this. We were too caught up in our own vicarious self-righteousness to spot a tyrant-in-the-making. And that's exactly what the story is meant to accomplish...
"I want you not just to read my work but to live my work." (GRRM)
...and, I daresay, remedy.
When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image.
I think the reason Season 8 is a train wreck is because the writers neglected everything except Dany's arc. And that risk of neglect is the same reason GRRM originally turned down offers to adapt ASOIAF into a movie 20 years ago.
"How are they gonna fit this giant thing in a feature film? 'Well, we'll make it all about Jon Snow and drop all these other characters.' Or, 'We'll make it all about Dany and we'll drop all these other characters.' They had various schemes of how they would do it." (GRRM)
I think Daenerys, more than any other character, embodies of the main theme of the story. If I thought the author who wrote Aerys and Brandon, Ramsay and Jeyne, Blood and Cheese is going to pull his punches when it comes time to finish his magnum opus, I'm in for a shock come The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring.

Identity

ASOIAF is a story about identity. Nearly every major character if not every major character is struggling with what can most succinctly be called "their past." But I pack a lot of things into "their past" that wouldn't normally be considered part of a person's past, so let me take some of those things out and explain why they're in there.
Those are a few identity challenges that characters need to overcome.
Why is birth part of my past? Because it happened in the past.
Why is heritage part of my past? Because I inherited my heritage at birth, which happened in the past.
I can tell when a character is due for tragedy by looking at whether or not a given character is rejecting "their past" or failing to integrate their past into their identity in a sustainable way.
“He is part of you, Robb. To fear him is to fear you.”
”I am not a wolf, no matter what they call me.” Robb sounded cross. (ASOS Catelyn II)
The taste of hot blood filled Jon's mouth, and he knew that Ghost had killed that night. No, he thought. I am a man, not a wolf. (ADWD Jon III)
“Rather too fierce, for an amiable fellow like me,” said Petyr. “I much prefer my mockingbird.” (ASOS Sansa VI)
Notice that some of the identity challenges are earned, such as the character's past mistakes, while others are not earned, such as Tyrion's dwarfism.
Tyrion was born a dwarf, and that's unfair to Tyrion. But it's also an immutable fact. Notice that all things in "their past" are immutable, regardless of whether or not it was earned. The nature of the past is that it cannot be changed.
Because Tyrion's dwarfism is immutable, the appropriate way for Tyrion to deal with it is to take responsibility of it and integrate his dwarfism into his identity going forward, regardless how unfair a condition it is to inherit.
"Let me give you some counsel, bastard," Lannister said. "Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you." (AGOT Jon I)
Because Arya, Brienne and Cersei's gender is immutable, the appropriate way for them to deal with it is to take responsibility for it and integrate it into their identities going forward, regardless how unfair a gender it is to inherit.
You are skinny as the shaft of a spear, do you know. That is good too, the target is smaller. (AGOT Arya II)
Sometimes the world needs to change to accommodate me. And sometimes I need to change the world to make room for myself. After all, a person has a responsibility to himself and his own well-being.
But that is only half of the identity theme.
The other half is that, in a mostly-peaceful and mostly-functioning society like Westeros, most of the time I need to do what my family and society require of me. I have a responsibility to my family and institutions. And if I won't pick up my share of the responsibilities, the unavoidable necessities won't be addressed.
“Mother,” he said, “I have the great honor to present you the Lady Jeyne Westerling. Lord Gawen’s elder daughter, and my … ah … my lady wife.” (ASOS Catelyn II)
Then the costs will be offloaded onto some hero more responsible than me. In the absence of a hero, the costs find me in a different way.
He had wrapped his cloak around her shoulders and sworn to protect her, but that was as cruel a jape as the crown the Freys had placed atop the head of Robb Stark's direwolf after they'd sewn it onto his headless corpse. (ASOS Tyrion VII)
P2
submitted by applesanddragons to asoiafcirclejerk [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 19th, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 19th, 2019.

Here’s what Powell could say at Jackson Hole to soothe the roller coaster markets - (Source)

If the markets get their way, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to clarify whether the Fed is at the beginning of a serious rate cutting cycle — or just intending to cut a few times, as insurance against a possible downturn.
Powell speaks Friday morning to kick off the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, and that event is the main focus of markets in the week ahead. The Fed also releases the minutes of its July meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is expected to detail discussions around its decision to cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade.
In a briefing following that meeting, Powell discussed the quarter point rate cut as a “midcycle adjustment,” implying it was just considering a few cuts. That comment shook markets, and interest rates have plunged, along with global bond yields.
“What the market wants is clearly that he moves away from the ‘midcycle adjustment’ commentary and transition toward an easing cycle,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Markets also will be watching any developments that reveal how trade talks between the U.S. and China are faring. President Donald Trump soothed some nerves in the past week when he delayed some of his latest tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump also said Thursday that discussions are continuing, and that he expects to talk to President Xi Jinping soon, though he gave no details.
Powell speaks at a time when markets have been doubting the Fed’s ability to head off a recession. Since he spoke on July 31, the stock market has been turbulent, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 3%, but the move in interest rates has been massive. The 10-year yield was at 2.07% that day, and touched a low of 1.475% on Thursday before returning to 1.54% by late Friday.
The Treasury’s 30-year bond made a historic move in the past week, when its yield fell to a record low of 1.915%, before rising back above 2% Friday. Also, the most widely watched part of the yield curve inverted, when the 2-year yield made the unusual move of temporarily rising above the 10-year yield. That would be taken as a sign of pending recession if it inverts again and stays that way for some time.
Stocks were lower for the week, but reversed sharper losses by the end of the week. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% Friday at 2,888, but was down 1% for the week. The Dow rose 1.2% to 25,886 Friday, but lost 1.5% for the week.
Dramatic moves in the world’s sovereign yields came as global central banks cut interest rates, and there was talk from a European Central Bank official that the ECB could use a big stimulus program. That puts extra pressure on the Fed, which has emphasized that it could lower rates because of the weak global economy, the impact of trade wars and sluggish inflation. Rates all over the globe moved lower, and the benchmark German 10-year bund set a new low of negative 0.73 Friday morning.
“They don’t want to signal they’re worried about the economy because the economy is doing okay, ” said Pramod Alturi, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. “I think they can do it. It’s going to be a tough communications challenge. The worry is when they try to tow the line, they end up being more hawkish than the market is looking for.”
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is looking for Powell to comment on the yield curve inversion and the market turbulence. “Is he more concerned about the outlook?” she said. “Has he become more concerned since the meeting, given the slowdown in global data, the increase of risks in the trade war and the recent significant moves in the market” she said.
The fed funds futures market is pricing in two to three rate cuts for the balance of the year. Since the Fed meeting, the market has become more concerned about the economy, with weaker global data from Europe and China, as well as a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, announced by President Donald Trump.
“Is Powell going to stick to the midcycle adjustment? It’s only been three weeks, but you throw in the sharp inversion of the yield curve and the extra consumer tariffs ... is he going to let the market whipsaw him? We’ve seen a big inversion and a sharp drop in rates since that meeting,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Strategists said the Fed tries to avoid making policy changes at the Jackson Hole meeting, but it was done during the financial crisis.
“Is it going to be an academic speech? Or is he going to pull a Ben Bernanke and use Jackson Hole as his FOMC venue. It was really [former Fed Chairman] Bernanke who most notably [used the meeting to discuss policy] when he laid out the case for QE twice,” Boockvar said.
Powell could also have to defend the Fed’s independence, and reiterate that he will stay in his position until his term expires, particularly after President Donald Trump criticized Fed policy and called him “clueless” this week.
Besides the Fed, there are some economic reports of interest in the week ahead. Existing home sales are announced Wednesday and PMI manufacturing and services data is released Thursday.
Krosby said she is watching developments with Huawei, since the temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with the black-listed Chinese company end on August 19.
“In terms of headlines this could be a market mover because of Huawei’s importance to Beijing. If there is an extension from the administration it could suggest an improvement in the D.C./Beijing dialogue, no doubt a positive headline,” she said, in an email. “We could find out what happens from a presidential tweet or from the Department of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the issue.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())
(NONE.)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Down Friday/Down Monday Streak Ending: A Quick Recovery Still Needed

Barring a late-day reversal, DJIA’s streak of Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) will end today at two in a row. Recently we examined the record of past DF/DM occurrencesand noted that a quick DJIA recovery to pre-DF/DM levels was usually positive as it typically meant the worst of the decline was likely over. Today we delve deeper into the history of two or more DF/DMs in a row.
Excluding the most recent occurrence, there have been two or more consecutive DF/DM’s 39 times since 2000. Of these 39, only four occurrences included three in a row. Using the last DF/DM of the streak as the starting point, the average decline from a subsequent high (within seven calendar days of Monday’s close) to the low sometime during the next 90 calendar days was 6.05% and all but three occurrences suffered a subsequent decline. Using Monday’s close as the refence point, the average decline was 4.53%. Only six of the 39 occurrences did not close lower than Monday’s close. The average number of calendar days until the low was reached was 45.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the 30 trading days before and the 60 trading days after Monday’s close of the last DF/DM of the streak, the patterns are similar to single DF/DM occurrences. If DJIA did not make a quick recovery to pre-DF/DM levels, then DJIA tended to struggle and drift lower.

Yield Curve Inversion Triggers Risk Aversion

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Unless you have been asleep for most of the day in preparation for an upcoming midnight shift, you have probably already heard, over and over, how the 10-year Treasury bond yield falling below the 2-year Treasury bond yield has a perfect record in recent years of forecasting a recession sometime in the future. The result was declines exceeding 3% by DJIA and NASDAQ. S&P 500 just missed this mark falling 2.9%. Since 1971, when NASDAQ began, this combination of losses or worse has only occurred 66 times prior to today. And of these 66 times, 25 occurred during the financial crisis bear in 2008 and early 2009.
Plotting the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after past occurrences reveals (top chart) initial steep and brisk declines followed by modest average gains over the following 60 trading days (approximately three calendar months). However, market performance did pick up nicely at the 6-month and 12-month later points and the frequency of gains also improved. The market could be in for more choppy trading especially in the often-turbulent months of August, September and October.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Yield Curve Inversion Raises Economic Questions

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typically, yield curve inversion, when long-term yields fall below short-term yields, is viewed as a signal of oncoming recession, although often with a relatively long lead. In the past five economic expansions, the U.S. economy has peaked an average of 21 months after the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields initially turned negative.
U.S. Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Even though we’re discouraged by the yield curve’s shape right now, we see few signs of danger ahead. Data shows the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and corporate debt spreads have remained contained in this latest bout of volatility. Financial conditions are still historically loose, yet there are few signs of excess in the financial system. U.S. stocks have also been resilient against yield curve inversions in the past: Historically, the S&P 500 Index has rallied an average of 22% from the first inversion to the eventual economic peak.
“We’re not convinced that this yield curve inversion is a sign of imminent recession,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market is at full employment, healthy wage growth is fueling strong consumer activity, and corporate profits are at record levels.”
Global Perspective
Of course, recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies of market sentiment, and we take that risk seriously. However, it’s a curious time for global fixed income right now, and Treasury yields have been weighed down by intense global buying pressure amid ultra-low sovereign debt yields elsewhere. Because of this, we think the yield curve’s shape has been driven more by technical factors than domestic economic weakness.
Monetary Policy Remains Too Tight
This yield curve inversion sends an important signal to Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. U.S. monetary policy is clearly still too tight, even after last month’s 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, given trade uncertainty and signs of slowing global growth. The Fed has promised flexibility, and we expect policymakers to enact one or two more cuts by the end of the year. Without an easier Fed, the U.S. dollar may stay elevated and global buying pressure will continue in Treasuries.
What’s Next?
We will continue to monitor the yield curve and incoming economic data. For now, we think the current U.S. economic expansion, now in its 11th year, has more room to run.

A Closer Look at Technical Support

We continue to believe there is technical support for the S&P 500 Index as discussed in our August 9 blog, and we’re already seeing some signs of the pessimism that is necessary for forming a bottom. The negative sentiment intensified August 14 following the inversion of the yield curve (discussed in our August 14 blog), so today we want to take a closer look at some key levels the LPL Research team is watching.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
First is resistance, or levels that an index or stock may struggle to rise above. Despite Tuesday’s 1.5% gain, the S&P 500 ran right into its 50-day moving average near 2,940. This level also marked the 2018 highs for the market, adding to its significance.
As for support, or levels at which we think buyers are likely to step into the market, there are three key levels we are watching: 2,822. The intraday low from August 5 is only about 1% below Wednesday’s close, but it may be viewed by short-term traders as a tactical way to gauge whether we have hit the bottom in this current pullback. 200-day moving average. Currently at 2,796, the 200-day moving average is a closely watched trend indicator that is commonly viewed as either support or resistance, depending on where the index sits in relation to it. 2,740. Perhaps the strongest level of support for the S&P 500 is 2,740. As seen in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, Key Levels for the S&P 500 Index, this benchmark has actually tested 2,740 two times so far this year, but it failed to close below that level either time. 2,740 also happens to be 9.5% below the July highs, right in line with a standard 10% correction. “We believe a retest of the December lows remains unlikely,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We think any decline beyond 10% from recent highs would be excessive, and we would recommend that suitable investors rebalance and add to positions accordingly if the S&P 500 falls that far.”

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 16th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 08.18.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.19.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.19.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.20.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.20.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.21.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.21.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.22.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.22.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.23.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.23.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Baidu, Inc. $96.70

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $3.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.70% with revenue decreasing by 3.82%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.2% below its 200 day moving average of $151.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 59,775 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $203.65

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.07 per share on revenue of $31.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.66% with revenue increasing by 1.80%. Short interest has increased by 5.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% above its 200 day moving average of $190.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 15,615 contracts of the $207.50 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Salesforce $143.89

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $3.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.46 to $0.47 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 32.86% with revenue increasing by 20.39%. Short interest has increased by 179.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% below its 200 day moving average of $149.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 21,894 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $84.21

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.61 per share on revenue of $18.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.52 to $1.72 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 3.12%. Short interest has decreased by 12.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% above its 200 day moving average of $77.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 23,882 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. $179.22

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.11% with revenue increasing by 6.53%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $158.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,514 contracts of the $175.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

iQIYI, Inc. $17.08

iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.59 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.11% with revenue increasing by 13.67%. Short interest has increased by 22.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% below its 200 day moving average of $20.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,500 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Weibo Corporation $37.08

Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $429.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $427.00 million to $437.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.42% with revenue increasing by 0.65%. Short interest has increased by 52.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.5% below its 200 day moving average of $55.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,546 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kohl's Corporation $45.51

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.20% with revenue decreasing by 1.75%. Short interest has decreased by 31.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.9% below its 200 day moving average of $62.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,014 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $93.92

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $21.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.93% with revenue increasing by 0.54%. Short interest has increased by 24.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% below its 200 day moving average of $100.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,368 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Splunk Inc. $124.79

Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.12 per share on revenue of $486.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $485.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.43% with revenue increasing by 25.34%. Short interest has increased by 34.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.9% above its 200 day moving average of $121.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 760 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 19th, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 19th, 2019.

Here’s what Powell could say at Jackson Hole to soothe the roller coaster markets - (Source)

If the markets get their way, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to clarify whether the Fed is at the beginning of a serious rate cutting cycle — or just intending to cut a few times, as insurance against a possible downturn.
Powell speaks Friday morning to kick off the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, and that event is the main focus of markets in the week ahead. The Fed also releases the minutes of its July meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is expected to detail discussions around its decision to cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade.
In a briefing following that meeting, Powell discussed the quarter point rate cut as a “midcycle adjustment,” implying it was just considering a few cuts. That comment shook markets, and interest rates have plunged, along with global bond yields.
“What the market wants is clearly that he moves away from the ‘midcycle adjustment’ commentary and transition toward an easing cycle,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Markets also will be watching any developments that reveal how trade talks between the U.S. and China are faring. President Donald Trump soothed some nerves in the past week when he delayed some of his latest tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump also said Thursday that discussions are continuing, and that he expects to talk to President Xi Jinping soon, though he gave no details.
Powell speaks at a time when markets have been doubting the Fed’s ability to head off a recession. Since he spoke on July 31, the stock market has been turbulent, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 3%, but the move in interest rates has been massive. The 10-year yield was at 2.07% that day, and touched a low of 1.475% on Thursday before returning to 1.54% by late Friday.
The Treasury’s 30-year bond made a historic move in the past week, when its yield fell to a record low of 1.915%, before rising back above 2% Friday. Also, the most widely watched part of the yield curve inverted, when the 2-year yield made the unusual move of temporarily rising above the 10-year yield. That would be taken as a sign of pending recession if it inverts again and stays that way for some time.
Stocks were lower for the week, but reversed sharper losses by the end of the week. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% Friday at 2,888, but was down 1% for the week. The Dow rose 1.2% to 25,886 Friday, but lost 1.5% for the week.
Dramatic moves in the world’s sovereign yields came as global central banks cut interest rates, and there was talk from a European Central Bank official that the ECB could use a big stimulus program. That puts extra pressure on the Fed, which has emphasized that it could lower rates because of the weak global economy, the impact of trade wars and sluggish inflation. Rates all over the globe moved lower, and the benchmark German 10-year bund set a new low of negative 0.73 Friday morning.
“They don’t want to signal they’re worried about the economy because the economy is doing okay, ” said Pramod Alturi, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. “I think they can do it. It’s going to be a tough communications challenge. The worry is when they try to tow the line, they end up being more hawkish than the market is looking for.”
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is looking for Powell to comment on the yield curve inversion and the market turbulence. “Is he more concerned about the outlook?” she said. “Has he become more concerned since the meeting, given the slowdown in global data, the increase of risks in the trade war and the recent significant moves in the market” she said.
The fed funds futures market is pricing in two to three rate cuts for the balance of the year. Since the Fed meeting, the market has become more concerned about the economy, with weaker global data from Europe and China, as well as a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, announced by President Donald Trump.
“Is Powell going to stick to the midcycle adjustment? It’s only been three weeks, but you throw in the sharp inversion of the yield curve and the extra consumer tariffs ... is he going to let the market whipsaw him? We’ve seen a big inversion and a sharp drop in rates since that meeting,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Strategists said the Fed tries to avoid making policy changes at the Jackson Hole meeting, but it was done during the financial crisis.
“Is it going to be an academic speech? Or is he going to pull a Ben Bernanke and use Jackson Hole as his FOMC venue. It was really [former Fed Chairman] Bernanke who most notably [used the meeting to discuss policy] when he laid out the case for QE twice,” Boockvar said.
Powell could also have to defend the Fed’s independence, and reiterate that he will stay in his position until his term expires, particularly after President Donald Trump criticized Fed policy and called him “clueless” this week.
Besides the Fed, there are some economic reports of interest in the week ahead. Existing home sales are announced Wednesday and PMI manufacturing and services data is released Thursday.
Krosby said she is watching developments with Huawei, since the temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with the black-listed Chinese company end on August 19.
“In terms of headlines this could be a market mover because of Huawei’s importance to Beijing. If there is an extension from the administration it could suggest an improvement in the D.C./Beijing dialogue, no doubt a positive headline,” she said, in an email. “We could find out what happens from a presidential tweet or from the Department of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the issue.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Down Friday/Down Monday Streak Ending: A Quick Recovery Still Needed

Barring a late-day reversal, DJIA’s streak of Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) will end today at two in a row. Recently we examined the record of past DF/DM occurrencesand noted that a quick DJIA recovery to pre-DF/DM levels was usually positive as it typically meant the worst of the decline was likely over. Today we delve deeper into the history of two or more DF/DMs in a row.
Excluding the most recent occurrence, there have been two or more consecutive DF/DM’s 39 times since 2000. Of these 39, only four occurrences included three in a row. Using the last DF/DM of the streak as the starting point, the average decline from a subsequent high (within seven calendar days of Monday’s close) to the low sometime during the next 90 calendar days was 6.05% and all but three occurrences suffered a subsequent decline. Using Monday’s close as the refence point, the average decline was 4.53%. Only six of the 39 occurrences did not close lower than Monday’s close. The average number of calendar days until the low was reached was 45.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the 30 trading days before and the 60 trading days after Monday’s close of the last DF/DM of the streak, the patterns are similar to single DF/DM occurrences. If DJIA did not make a quick recovery to pre-DF/DM levels, then DJIA tended to struggle and drift lower.

Yield Curve Inversion Triggers Risk Aversion

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Unless you have been asleep for most of the day in preparation for an upcoming midnight shift, you have probably already heard, over and over, how the 10-year Treasury bond yield falling below the 2-year Treasury bond yield has a perfect record in recent years of forecasting a recession sometime in the future. The result was declines exceeding 3% by DJIA and NASDAQ. S&P 500 just missed this mark falling 2.9%. Since 1971, when NASDAQ began, this combination of losses or worse has only occurred 66 times prior to today. And of these 66 times, 25 occurred during the financial crisis bear in 2008 and early 2009.
Plotting the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after past occurrences reveals (top chart) initial steep and brisk declines followed by modest average gains over the following 60 trading days (approximately three calendar months). However, market performance did pick up nicely at the 6-month and 12-month later points and the frequency of gains also improved. The market could be in for more choppy trading especially in the often-turbulent months of August, September and October.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Yield Curve Inversion Raises Economic Questions

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typically, yield curve inversion, when long-term yields fall below short-term yields, is viewed as a signal of oncoming recession, although often with a relatively long lead. In the past five economic expansions, the U.S. economy has peaked an average of 21 months after the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields initially turned negative.
U.S. Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Even though we’re discouraged by the yield curve’s shape right now, we see few signs of danger ahead. Data shows the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and corporate debt spreads have remained contained in this latest bout of volatility. Financial conditions are still historically loose, yet there are few signs of excess in the financial system. U.S. stocks have also been resilient against yield curve inversions in the past: Historically, the S&P 500 Index has rallied an average of 22% from the first inversion to the eventual economic peak.
“We’re not convinced that this yield curve inversion is a sign of imminent recession,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market is at full employment, healthy wage growth is fueling strong consumer activity, and corporate profits are at record levels.”
Global Perspective
Of course, recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies of market sentiment, and we take that risk seriously. However, it’s a curious time for global fixed income right now, and Treasury yields have been weighed down by intense global buying pressure amid ultra-low sovereign debt yields elsewhere. Because of this, we think the yield curve’s shape has been driven more by technical factors than domestic economic weakness.
Monetary Policy Remains Too Tight
This yield curve inversion sends an important signal to Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. U.S. monetary policy is clearly still too tight, even after last month’s 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, given trade uncertainty and signs of slowing global growth. The Fed has promised flexibility, and we expect policymakers to enact one or two more cuts by the end of the year. Without an easier Fed, the U.S. dollar may stay elevated and global buying pressure will continue in Treasuries.
What’s Next?
We will continue to monitor the yield curve and incoming economic data. For now, we think the current U.S. economic expansion, now in its 11th year, has more room to run.

A Closer Look at Technical Support

We continue to believe there is technical support for the S&P 500 Index as discussed in our August 9 blog, and we’re already seeing some signs of the pessimism that is necessary for forming a bottom. The negative sentiment intensified August 14 following the inversion of the yield curve (discussed in our August 14 blog), so today we want to take a closer look at some key levels the LPL Research team is watching.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
First is resistance, or levels that an index or stock may struggle to rise above. Despite Tuesday’s 1.5% gain, the S&P 500 ran right into its 50-day moving average near 2,940. This level also marked the 2018 highs for the market, adding to its significance.
As for support, or levels at which we think buyers are likely to step into the market, there are three key levels we are watching: 2,822. The intraday low from August 5 is only about 1% below Wednesday’s close, but it may be viewed by short-term traders as a tactical way to gauge whether we have hit the bottom in this current pullback. 200-day moving average. Currently at 2,796, the 200-day moving average is a closely watched trend indicator that is commonly viewed as either support or resistance, depending on where the index sits in relation to it. 2,740. Perhaps the strongest level of support for the S&P 500 is 2,740. As seen in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, Key Levels for the S&P 500 Index, this benchmark has actually tested 2,740 two times so far this year, but it failed to close below that level either time. 2,740 also happens to be 9.5% below the July highs, right in line with a standard 10% correction. “We believe a retest of the December lows remains unlikely,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We think any decline beyond 10% from recent highs would be excessive, and we would recommend that suitable investors rebalance and add to positions accordingly if the S&P 500 falls that far.”

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 16th, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 08.18.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.19.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.19.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.20.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.20.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.21.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.21.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.22.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.22.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.23.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.23.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Baidu, Inc. $96.70

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $3.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.70% with revenue decreasing by 3.82%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.2% below its 200 day moving average of $151.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 59,775 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $203.65

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.07 per share on revenue of $31.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.66% with revenue increasing by 1.80%. Short interest has increased by 5.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% above its 200 day moving average of $190.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 15,615 contracts of the $207.50 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Salesforce $143.89

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $3.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.46 to $0.47 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 32.86% with revenue increasing by 20.39%. Short interest has increased by 179.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% below its 200 day moving average of $149.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 21,894 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $84.21

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.61 per share on revenue of $18.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.52 to $1.72 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 3.12%. Short interest has decreased by 12.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% above its 200 day moving average of $77.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 23,882 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. $179.22

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.11% with revenue increasing by 6.53%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $158.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,514 contracts of the $175.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

iQIYI, Inc. $17.08

iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.59 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.11% with revenue increasing by 13.67%. Short interest has increased by 22.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% below its 200 day moving average of $20.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,500 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Weibo Corporation $37.08

Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $429.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $427.00 million to $437.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.42% with revenue increasing by 0.65%. Short interest has increased by 52.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.5% below its 200 day moving average of $55.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,546 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

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Kohl's Corporation $45.51

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.20% with revenue decreasing by 1.75%. Short interest has decreased by 31.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.9% below its 200 day moving average of $62.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,014 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

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Lowe's Companies, Inc. $93.92

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $21.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.93% with revenue increasing by 0.54%. Short interest has increased by 24.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% below its 200 day moving average of $100.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,368 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

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Splunk Inc. $124.79

Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.12 per share on revenue of $486.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $485.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.43% with revenue increasing by 25.34%. Short interest has increased by 34.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.9% above its 200 day moving average of $121.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 760 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
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